India is now the world’s second-largest egg producer and among the largest producers of broiler meat. The sector turns over roughly ₹2.7 lakh crore a year, accounts for about 16 per cent of livestock output, and supports close to five million livelihoods.

For a business that began as a rural side activity, it has become one of the fastest-compounding parts of Indian agriculture — poultry’s share of agriculture and allied output has climbed from 2.9 per cent in 2011–12 to 5.0 per cent in 2023–24.

A record price season
The headline numbers are strong. On 5 September, the National Egg Coordination Committee’s average declared rate stood at ₹5.64 per egg across 34 markets, ranging from ₹4.90 in Hospet to ₹6.20 in Kolkata. Delhi was quoted at ₹6.00, Barwala at ₹5.43 and Ludhiana at ₹5.48. That is a comfortable band for layer farms that were selling below ₹5 through much of last year.

Broilers have swung harder. Farm-gate live bird prices in the Delhi region touched ₹140 a kilogram in July against roughly ₹90 a year earlier, while retail chicken moved from about ₹240 to nearly ₹300 a kilogram. Prices have since cooled as the monsoon supply cycle normalised — north Indian integrators were quoting live bird in the mid-₹90s per kilogram in late August — but the annual average is still tracking well above FY25. Care Edge Ratings estimates broiler realisations recovered about 5 per cent year on year in FY26, with live bird averaging ₹99 a kilogram in February–March 2026, more than 20 per cent above the bird-flu-depressed fourth quarter of Fy25.
Data Box 1 · Necc Egg Rates, 5 September 2026 (₹ Per Egg)

Why the margin is not where the price is
Feed accounts for 65 to 70 per cent of the cost of producing a broiler and roughly 68 to 70 per cent of the cost of producing an egg. In a business with that cost structure, a 15 per cent move in feed wipes out a 10 per cent move in output prices. That is precisely what has happened this year.

Compound poultry feed is now selling at about ₹4,400 a quintal against roughly ₹3,600 a year ago. Maize, the energy backbone of the ration, has moved from ₹18–19 a kilogram in April to ₹27–28 a kilogram. Soybean is ruling near ₹6,900 a quintal, well above the ₹5,708 minimum support price for the 2026–27 season.

Data Box 2 · The Cost Side

Two structural forces are behind the maize spike. First, ethanol. Grain-based distilleries have become a large, price-insensitive buyer of maize, and poultry feed mills are now bidding against a sector backed by a national blending mandate. Nearly 60 per cent of India’s maize output already goes to livestock, with poultry alone accounting for roughly 47 per cent of livestock maize consumption. Second, soybean meal. India is short by an estimated 1.5 million tonnes ahead of the new crop, and soybean acreage this kharif is down 4.5 per cent year on year at 10.6 million hectares.

“India is short an estimated 1.5 million tonnes of soybean meal before the new crop arrives — and soybean acreage this season is down 4.5 per cent.”

The policy knot: imports, GM corn and a farm lobby
The livestock and feed industry have asked the Centre to permit imports of about 1.5 million tonnes of soybean meal to bridge the gap. The soybean processing industry has opposed the move, arguing that domestic supply is adequate and that imports would discourage farmers from expanding oilseed acreage. It is a familiar standoff: the same protein deficit, the same two lobbies, a different year.

Poultry industry representatives have also pressed for approval of genetically modified corn, on the argument that higher-yielding maize would give both the feed and ethanol industries cheaper raw material. Under this year’s trade arrangement with the United States, India retained protection on corn and soybean — both predominantly GM crops there — while agreeing to allow imports of distillers’ dried grains and red sorghum for animal feed. That is a partial valve, not a solution. DDGS can replace part of the energy component of a ration; it cannot replace the protein that soybean meal supplies.

For business readers, the policy question is simple to state and hard to settle: India cannot simultaneously run an aggressive ethanol programme, protect oilseed growers from imports, and supply a poultry sector growing at 7 to 8 per cent a year with cheap feed. Something has to give, and so far, the adjustment has been borne by poultry farmers and, downstream, by consumers.

Volumes keep climbing anywayRemarkably, none of this has slowed production. India produced 149.11 billion eggs in 2024–25, second only to China, with commercial farms accounting for about 84.5 per cent of output and backyard poultry the rest. CareEdge estimates egg output at around 155 billion in FY26, rising to roughly 163 billion in FY27, with total meat production moving from about 11 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes over the same period.

Data Box 3 · Production Trajectory

Poultry India puts broiler production growth at 6 to 7 per cent a year for 2026–27, concentrated in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, with the layer segment expanding more moderately on the back of productivity per bird, automation and value-added products. Andhra Pradesh alone accounts for 18.4 per cent of national egg output, Tamil Nadu 15.6 per cent and Telangana 13.0 per cent; the top five states together produce 64.4 per cent of India’s eggs.

Exports remain a modest but real business. India shipped poultry products worth USD 317.79 million in FY26, with the UAE, Oman, Maldives, Indonesia and Japan the leading destinations. Against a sector of roughly USD 31 billion, exports are still a rounding error — which is itself the opportunity, constrained mainly by disease-free-zone certification and processing infrastructure.

The demand headroom argument
The most persuasive case for investing in Indian poultry is not this year’s price cycle. It is the consumption gap. Per capita egg availability is around 100 to 105 eggs a year against the National Institute of Nutrition’s recommended 180. Per capita chicken consumption is roughly 5 kg a year against a global average close to 17.5 kg. Industry estimates suggest that a one-kilogram rise in per-person chicken consumption would add about 1.43 million tonnes of annual demand.

That headroom is being converted by three commercial forces rather than by policy: quick-service restaurants, organised retail, and the shift from live-bird wet markets to chilled and frozen products. Vertically integrated producers — who own the hatchery, the feed mill, the contract farms and increasingly the processing plant — have been the main beneficiaries, because integration is what buffers a business against the feed-price whiplash described above.
The value-of-output data makes the compounding visible. Poultry meat and eggs generated about ₹56,200 crore of output in 2011–12. By 2023–24 that figure was ₹2.67 lakh crore — a growth rate of 9.3 per cent a year for meat and 6.1 per cent for eggs, against 5.3 per cent for milk and 2.1 per cent for cereals.

“Poultry’s share of agriculture and allied output has risen from 2.9 per cent to 5.0 per cent in twelve years. Few segments of Indian agriculture have compounded faster.”

The recurring tax: disease and weather
Avian influenza remains the sector’s single largest tail risk, and 2026 has been an active year. India reported eleven H5N1 outbreaks on farms in Kerala in December, killing roughly 54,100 birds. In February, about 6,000 birds were culled at a research centre in Patna, with movement restrictions imposed across a nine-kilometre surveillance zone. In March, more than 22,000 birds were culled in Bilaspur district of Chhattisgarh, and in April Karnataka reported its first case of the year at a farm near Bengaluru.

The direct culling loss is rarely the biggest cost. The bigger hit is the demand shock: consumers step away from chicken for several weeks after every widely reported outbreak, and prices in unaffected states fall alongside those in affected ones. Q4 FY25 was a textbook case, and the strong February–March 2026 realisations look impressive partly because they are measured against that depressed base.

Weather has compounded the problem this season. A prolonged heat wave followed by a delayed and unevenly distributed monsoon raised bird mortality and cut egg production in several states, adding to the cost per marketable bird. For layer units, higher mortality in an inflated-feed environment is a double penalty: the feed has already been consumed before the bird is lost.

The industry’s answer, so far, is largely defensive — stronger vaccination protocols, farm-level biosecurity training and surveillance, alongside a push for indigenous vaccine development that would reduce cost for small and mid-sized farms.

What the ratings agencies see
For all the noise, the credit view is constructive. CareEdge describes FY26 as a year of stabilised operating performance — healthy production growth, resilient demand across retail, institutional and food-service channels, improved supply-demand balance and a recovery in profitability with a strong finish in the fourth quarter. Its FY27 outlook for the sector is stable.
The distinction worth drawing is between the organised and unorganised halves of the industry. Integrators with feed-buying scale, forward contracts and processing margins have ridden the cost cycle. Independent broiler and layer farmers, who buy feed at spot and sell birds at spot, have absorbed it. That gap is quietly accelerating consolidation — the most consequential structural trend in the sector right now, and one that will show up over the next few years in contract-farming penetration and in capital-market activity among the larger integrators.

Public support remains focused on the entrepreneurial end. The National Livestock Mission continues to offer a 50 per cent capital subsidy for parent farms, rural hatcheries and brooder-cum-mother units, aimed at small and rural producers rather than at large integrators. It builds capacity; it does not address the feed-price problem that is currently setting margins.

What to watch for the rest of FY27
• The soymeal decision. Whether the Centre permits the 1.5 million tonne import the livestock industry has requested is the single biggest swing factor for margins this year.
• New-crop maize and soybean arrivals. A good kharif arrival could pull feed back toward ₹4,000 a quintal; a poor one locks in current costs through the festive season.
• Ethanol demand for maize. The structural competitor for feed grain is not going away and will keep a floor under maize prices.
• Winter avian influenza. Outbreak seasonality peaks between December and March. Watch for demand shocks rather than culling losses.
• Festive and winter demand. Egg consumption typically strengthens from October, which should support NECC rates even if feed stays elevated.
• Consolidation and capital. Cost pressure is a filter. Expect more contract farming, more integration, and more interest in the sector from public and private capital.

“The bottom line for anyone with capital in this business: India’s poultry demand story is intact and structurally under-served, but 2026 has demonstrated that returns in this sector are set on the input side, not the output side. The operators who will do well over the next eighteen months are not the ones betting on higher chicken prices. They are the ones who have solved for feed.”

References are available on request.

In the last five years, the agriculture sector has grown at an average growth rate of 4.18 percent per year. According to the Economic Survey (2023-24) presented to parliament, the allied sectors of Indian agriculture are steadily emerging as robust growth centres and promising sources for improving farm incomes. From 2014-15 to 2022-23, the Livestock sector grew at an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.38 per cent. The contribution of Livestock to the total Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sectors also increased. In 2022- 23, the Livestock sector contributed 4.66 per cent of the total GVA, significantly boosting the per capita availability of milk, eggs and meat, according to the economic survey.

The Livestock sector is an important sub-sector of agriculture which plays a significant role in generating gainful employment in the rural sector, particularly among the landless, small and marginal farmers. Poultry production in India valued at $ 30 billion has taken a huge-leap in the last four decades, emerging from conventional farming practices to commercial production systems with state-of-the-art technological interventions. Currently the sector is estimated to employ more than 6 million people either directly or indirectly. The small and medium size farm (5000 birds onwards) mostly engaged in contract farming systems under larger integrators or companies.

A report titled ‘Vision 2047’ Indian Poultry sector by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has stated that the growth in the poultry sector in the country has been attributed to the commercial poultry industry which accounts for 85% of production while the rest of 15% of the output comes from the traditional backyard poultry.
India has transformed their poultry farming industry through major investments in breeding, hatching, rearing, and processing of chicken. India, as the third-largest producer of eggs (129.60 billion) and the fifth-largest producer of poultry meat (aprox. 6 million tonnes) globally. As per the FAOSTAT 2, the USA has 17% share in global poultry meat production followed by China (12%), Brazil (11.7%), Russia (3.8%) and India (3.5).

According to a latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) working paper on ‘Livestock and Poultry Inflation in India’, within livestock, poultry meat production (from broiler industry) has grown steadily with the emergence of vertically integrated poultry producers. However, the annual per capita consumption of poultry meat aprox. 6.5 kg in India, is low by global standards. Broilers bird placement in India is about 5-5.5 billion annually while the layer placement is estimated at around 300 million.

India ranks fourth globally in terms of livestock feed (poultry, dairy, aqua) production at 52.83 million tonne (MT) in 2023, which is an increase of more than 13% compared to 46.58 MT in 2022. India’s soybean production is estimated around 12.2 MT against Brazil (169 MT) and USA (120 MT) in 2023. However, according to feedback received from various poultry associations, broiler feed demand was 16 MT in 2022-23 and projected to increase to 18.6 MT in 2025-26. Layer feed demand is currently projected at 11.9 MMT which is likely to increase to 15.9 MMT by 2025-26. Cattle feed demand is expected to rise from 16.03 M to 19.64 MT in the next couple of years. Aqua feed is likely to rise from 2.43 MT to 3.1 MT. Overall feed demand is set to rise to 57.24 MT by 2025-26. Soymeal consumption for broiler, layer, cattle and aqua feeds is projected to increase from 6.6 MT to 7.33 MT.

Recently, there has been increasing reports of adulteration in soybean meal, which could adversely impact the growth of the poultry sector. The adulteration reduces the nutritional value of the poultry feed and may result in severe health implications of birds, yield and can cause mortality of birds which can hit farmers’ income through loss in output. At present there are no strict measures initiated for dealing with the issue.

Creation of a Bureau of Indian Standard certification for soybean meal would result in the poultry farmers getting access to quality and nutritionally enriched feed which would be vital for maintaining the health of poultry and ensuring optimal productivity in the rising poultry sector.
With rising demand for feed, the output has to increase in comparison to increase in demand. To sustain the growth in the livestock sector, Import Liberalization for corn and soybean /soybean meal is must. Soybean meal is a key protein source for poultry feed and directly impacts the health, growth, and yield of birds. According to SOPA reports, soybean production in the 2023-24 oil year (October-September) is estimated at 11.87 million tonne (MT) while carry forward stock was 2.4 MT and imports were 0.6 MT. Out of these, 1.3 MT has been retained for seed purpose while total stock available for crushing is 13.58 MT.

In the case of soybean meal output, 9.46 MT was produced in 2023-24 oil year and there was carry forward stock of 0.11 MT and imports were 0.25 MT. Out of the total availability of soybean meal, 2.1 MT were exported while around 0.8 MT was used as domestic consumption for food purpose in 2023-24 oil year. Around 6.6 MT of soymeal used for feed last oil year.

The government recently substantially hiked import duties on both refined and crude edible oil – palm, soybean and sunflower. This move is expected to boost market prices of soybean. The government has just approved the national mission on edible oils-oilseeds with an outlay of Rs. 10,103 crore aimed at boosting edible oil production from the current level of 12.7 million tonne (MT) to 20.2 MT by 2031. Area under oilseeds will be increased to 33 million hectare from the current level of 29 million hectare. The mission aims to increase oilseed production from 39 MT (2022-23) to 69.7 MT by 2030-31. The edible oil mission will focus on enhancing the production of key oilseeds– rapeseed, mustard, groundnut, soybean and sunflower. In addition, the program aimed at increasing collection and extraction efficiency from secondary oilseeds like cottonseed and rice bran.

Despite such considerable growth in the livestock and poultry sector, the feed prices have remained volatile. Stating that there has been increasing diversion of maize towards industrial use and ethanol production, the CII’s report had stated that the current growth level of maize and soybean production in the country will be insufficient to meet the demand of the poultry industry. The CII has urged the government to allow imports of Genetically Modified (GM) maize and soybean because of ‘unprecedented increase’ in prices while adding that interest of the domestic producers should be protected too.

In August, 2021, the government had relaxed import rules to allow the first shipment of 1.2 MT (million tonne) of Genetically Modified soybean meal to support the domestic poultry industry after a record spike in prices. The composition of animal feed is 65% is energy source mostly from maize, bajra and broken rice while rest is protein source mostly from soybean meal and groundnut extraction. There is an urgent need to formulae strategy for meeting the demand supply gap for corn and soybean meal in livestock feed – poultry, dairy and aqua for sustaining growth in the sector. Several south Asian countries including Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have allowed imports of GM Soybean / Soybean Meal.

About the Author

Mr. Ricky Thaper is Treasurer, Poultry Federation of India and in his career of more than 35 years in Poultry, has attended several specialized courses and programs on Poultry around the world. Mr. Thaper has attended prestigious international events including the International Poultry Exposition in Atlanta, USA, the International Exposition for Food Processors in San Francisco, USA, World’s Poultry Congress in Montreal, Canada, VIV Turkey in Istanbul, Turkey, SPACE Poultry and Livestock Exhibition in Rennes, France, VIV EUROPE in Utrecht, The Netherlands, ILDEX Vietnam in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam and many more. Through the prestigious Cochran Fellowship Program, Mr. Thaper had attended poultry and aqua feed preparation short course at Texas A&M University, USA in 2000. Additionally, he completed courses on extrusion processes at the Food Protein Research and Development Centre, Texas Engineering Experiment Station, Texas A&M University, in 2005, and on soybean processing at the National Soybean Research Centre, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA in 2008.

Mr. Thaper actively connects and collaborates with global poultry communities, promoting industry advancements. His dedication to animal care and enthusiasm for the poultry sector has earned him multiple awards at national and international events in last three decades. Mr. Thaper is also Regional Advisory Council Member of the Soy Excellence Center-India. Mr. Thaper provides inputs to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Inflation Analysis Team on future price movements and food price outlook of poultry meat and feed at regular intervals. Mr. Thaper is on Editorial Board of several Journals and has contributed several write-ups on the poultry sector which have been published in several national and international journals. He has also delivered several lectures on various global platform.