In this exclusive interaction with Mr. Ricky Thaper discusses the critical issues shaping India’s poultry sector, including feed security, ethanol mandates, regulatory reforms, import policies, and sustainable strategies for future growth and competitiveness.

Poultry Creations: With the rapid modernization of India’s poultry sector, how do you foresee domestic feed-grain demand evolving in direct competition with ethanol mandates?

Ricky Thaper: At present, the Indian poultry industry, which has seen 7% to 8% annual growth in the last decade is valued at over $ 30 billion. The industry has transformed itself from following conventional farming practices to a modern commercial production system. However sustained supply of feed ingredients remains a key challenge. Poultry feed mostly consist of Maize (corn) 50-55% and Soybean Meal 20-25% and rest other feed ingredients and feed additives & nutrients.

Stating that there has been increasing diversion of maize towards industrial use and ethanol production, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in the vision document for poultry sector in 2047 had also stated “the current growth level of maize and soybean production in the country will be insufficient to meet the demand of the poultry industry.” The CII has urged the government to allow imports of genetically modified (GM) maize and soybean because of ‘unprecedented increase’ in feed prices.

The demand supply situation has entered a new phase especially maize, a key ingredient, has become India’s single-largest feedstock for ethanol. With growing demand for maize following the government’s future plans to expand ethanol blending program, may result in lesser supplies for poultry, dairy and aqua feed.

Poultry Creations: What regulatory alignments are most critical right now to ensure stable, cost-effective grain supplies for the growing poultry and livestock industry?

Ricky Thaper: To meet the growing needs of the livestock feed, the government needs to have an open import policy for sourcing maize and soybean meal from the various countries, irrespective of whether the crops are GM variants or not. With the competing demand from ethanol, starch and other sectors, feed ingredients imports should be open without any restrictions. In August, 2021, the government had relaxed import rules to allow the first shipment of 1.2 million ton of genetically modified (GM) soybean meal to support the domestic poultry industry after a record spike in feed prices. Poultry industry has urged the Government repeatedly to allow both import and cultivation of GM maize and soybeans to fulfil the requirement of these two major feed ingredients in the coming years. The sustainable supplies of feed in coming years would be crucial for the growth of the poultry industry.
Currently annual animal feed production is estimated close to 56 million tons which includes dairy feed 16.5 million tons, aqua feed 2.5 million tons and poultry feed 37 million tons. The feed ingredients are mostly maize and soybean meal About 60-65% of the output of maize is used as poultry and livestock feed while rest is used for industrial use.

In the 2025-26 crop year (July-June), the agriculture ministry has estimated maize production at 52 million tons while output estimate by trade is around 48 million tons. As per industry estimate, poultry industry used around 26 million tons of maize in feed while around 5.5 million tons used for dairy feed while around 6 million tons was used by starch industry and only 1.5 MT is used for human consumption. 1 million tons in alcohol and about 1 million tons in seed and wastage. Balance 8-10 MT of maize was diverted for ethanol production.

Poultry Creations: How can corporate agribusiness interests and national trade policies better synchronize to protect poultry margins during periods of commodity price spikes?

Ricky Thaper: The poultry sector is a vital sector of the livestock industry which provides employment to over 6 million people. While industry is witnessing a steady pace, sustainable feed supplies at reasonable prices would be crucial for the growth of the sector as feed prices constitute over 65% to 70% of the cost of production. Any increase in feed prices hit the margins of poultry farmers. The government has been focussing on growth of agriculture and allied sectors. There are several industries which require maize at their key raw material so the government should focus on. The current growth level of maize production in the country will be insufficient to meet the demand of the poultry industry in coming years.
The soybean production cycle in India for the year 2025–26 has seen a notable downturn compared to the 2024–25 season. As per the data from the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (MoA & FW) or the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), the consensus is clear: production fell sharply due to a combination of lower acreage, extreme weather and falling yields.

Government Estimate is 12.60 Million Tons and the Industry Estimate (SOPA Ground Survey) | is11.03 Million Tons The Government numbers track total theoretical agricultural output, while SOPA’s numbers heavily filter for commercial availability, market arrivals and clean seed weight available to crushing mills.

Three main factors compressed the 2025–26 harvest compared to the previous year:
1. Reduced Cultivation Acreage – Farmers actively shifted some of their land away from soy due to weaker market-yard prices observed mid-2025, from 118.31 Lakh Hectares (2024–25 Acreage) to 112.14 Lakh Hectares (2025–26 Acreage), a decline of roughly 5.2%

2. Depressed Yields per Hectare – Climate abnormalities took a heavy toll on the plants during critical growth phases. The national average crop yield dropped from 1,089 kg per hectare in 2024–25 down to 983 kg per hectare in 2025–26.

3. Weather Anomalies and Crop Disease – Excessive & Uneven Rains: The monsoon brought flash water-logging in low-lying areas during the initial phase, causing localized washouts that required re-sowing. Later, prolonged heavy rains during the critical harvesting time damaged crop quality, yielding smaller grain sizes and higher moisture content. Pest Pressures: Key growing belts saw infestations of Yellow Mosaic Virus and aerial blight, which severely stunted pod development.

Because total commercial availability for crushing fell dramatically to10.40 Million Tons (compared to over 12.32 Million Tons in 2024–25), the domestic crushing industry has faced severe supply shortages. This raw material deficit is the primary driver behind the rocketing local meal prices and the collapse of the export trade.

Another major challenging area is the dried distillers’ grains with soluble (DDGS) from maize, a key by-product of ethanol production, are not of desired quality for feed and the toxins levels are high. The challenge is that this toxin affected DDGS when used in feed will set into food chain.

Poultry Creations: What sustainable growth models are proving successful in insulating the Indian poultry sector from global supply chain shocks?

Ricky Thaper: The poultry industry, like other agriculture sectors, is subject to the supply and demand scenario, market structures and Government policies. An open import policy on animal feed ingredient would go a long way meeting the demand of livestock and poultry feed. Several south Asian countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have allowed imports of GM Maize and GM soybean / soymeal. The GM soybean / soybean meal and Maize imports should be allowed with a fixed quota during off or non-harvesting season here so that it does not adversely impact the farmers’ price realisation. Reduction in import duties on these feed ingredients in the poultry feed should be announced soon.

As the demand and supply gap between consumption and production of feed grows, liberalised imports of soybean meal and maize would mitigate the problems and keep the prices under check. With the competing sector demanding maize supplies, liberalising policy on import is of paramount importance for sustainable growth of the poultry sector which is growing at a steady pace with the rising demand of protein enriched food.

To sustain growth in the poultry sector, the government must ensure supplies of feed ingredients at reasonable prices which should be ensured through liberalizing imports and augmenting production.

Livestock rearing is one of the most important economic activities in the rural areas contributing significantly to the economy. Livestock sector, although half the size of crops, plays a crucial role in driving the agricultural gross value added (GVA) growth. This sector is contributing to the economy in a big way considering the higher rate of growth of the sector in comparison to the agriculture sector.

Presently, the GVA of the livestock sector has recorded an annual growth rate of around 6% at constant prices. The growth of the sector is more than the crop sector growth rate which was 1.65% annually. Its contribution to the Indian agriculture and economy is increasing steadily with a share of 30.47% in agriculture and allied sector GVA and 4.75% in the country’s total GVA.

According to basic animal husbandry statistics, 2023, out of the total meat production of 9.77 million ton (MT) in 2022-23, the share of poultry meat was 4.99 MT, contributing 51% of total output. The growth of poultry meat production has increased by 4.52% over previous year. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, India ranks 8th in the world in terms of meat production. The poultry sector in India is valued at more than $28 billion in 2021-22, according to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)’s vision document – 2047 for Indian poultry sector released recently. Over the years, the poultry sector in the country has witnessed a remarkable growth, with chicken meat growing at an annual growth rate of 8% in the last 15 years – 2006-2021-22, the report stated.

With rising disposable income and population, the demand for poultry products including chicken meat and eggs has been on rise. The sector has capitalized on this opportunity and expanded its production capability to meet the growing consumer demand. This significant transformation in the poultry sector has been attributed to the commercial poultry industry which accounts for 85% of the total poultry production and 15% is contributed by backyard poultry. The sector has witnessed a shift from the traditional backyard poultry models to a model production technique including integrated farming systems, contracting farming and value chain integration.

As the share of meat and egg eating population has increased by 6% during 2015 – 2021, the national family health survey -V, 2021, the demand for poultry and products is set to increase further. Currently, the per capita consumption of poultry products in the country (94 eggs per annum and chicken meat consumption is 4.2 kg per annum) is very low as compared to the Indian Council for Media Research (ICMR) recommended consumption level of 180 eggs and 10.8/kg poultry meat per person per annum. There is a need to bridge the gap between availability and requirements couples with large scale awareness campaigns.

For enhancing efficiency of the poultry sector, several measures are being undertaken to improve genetics and disease resistance breeds of poultry, disease prevention and surveillance, and supply of affordable feed which constitute 65% to 70% of the cost of production of meat remain a challenge. While stating that the domestic poultry industry is likely to grow at a steady pace of 8%-10% in 2023-24, consulting firm ICRA in March this year had stated that earnings of poultry companies are expected to be volatile owing to fluctuations in the raw material or feed costs, especially maize. ICRA has stated that due to rising worldwide demand for Indian maize as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased exports from India, maize prices have grown significantly by 32% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in 2022-23, resulting in increase in average feed price.

Poultry feed mostly consists of maize, Bajra and broken rice (60-65%), soybean meal (30-35%) and nutrients. The mandi prices of maize because of rising demand for industrial use is ruling much above the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs.1962/quintal announced by the government for 2022-23 and Rs.2090/quintal for 2023-24 kharif season. Stating that there has been increasing diversion of maize towards industrial use and ethanol production, “the current growth level of maize and soybean production in the country will be insufficient to meet the demand of the poultry industry.” As the government plans to promote use of maize for ethanol, the poultry industry can face challenges in getting maize for feed.

Several poultry and livestock industry associations including All India Poultry Breeders Association, The Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association, Poultry Federation of India, Vets in Poultry, are now Pitching for the government to allow imports of GM maize and soybean because of ‘unprecedented increase’ in prices. Regional Poultry Associations have also urged the central government for reduction in import duty on maize and soybean to deal with feed supplies. The industry feared that the prices of maize would spike in the coming months as the diversion of these raw materials for ethanol production is expected to increase as the government has reduced allocation of sugarcane for biofuel production.

In August 2021, the government had relaxed import rules to allow the first shipment of 1.2 MT of genetically modified (GM) soymeal to support the domestic poultry industry after a record spike in feed prices. Poultry industry has requested that the Government should allow both import and cultivation of GM Soybeans and Maize to fulfill the requirement of these two major feed ingredients. The sustainable supplies of feed ingredients in coming years would be crucial for the growth of the poultry industry.